TrendKEY - 11 Drivers

While the economy may rise or fall, the longer-term perspective tells us that more people are part of the market economy than ever before.

And while the gap between the "poverty-stricken" and the "über-rich" is wider than ever, more and more people fall into the middle ground.

Indeed the rise of the middle-classes has been one of the major stories of the 20th century.

The 6.5 Billion of us currently on the planet will grow to 9 Billion by 2042. Those 9 Billion can expect to live longer lives than at any point in human history. This is changing the composition of the population as well as the size. More of us will be older, more of us will remain childless, and more of us will live in smaller households. This has huge implications for all of us on everything from resource availability to environmental degradation.

It is certainly true that global lifestyles are converging. For example, TV news providers have gone global and entertainment channels increasingly show global franchise shows alongside local content. The same brands of furniture, fashion and coffee are available from Beijing to Buenos Aires.

And yet, it IS still different to be French than it is to be British, to be Chinese not Brazilian or to be American not Australian. Local customs, habits and taste preferences persist despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Indeed there is some evidence of a hardening of local preferences as a symbolic defence of local culture over global.

Without commenting on the current economic situation, some things are clear. Firstly, that national economies are much more inter-related than ever before so that the effects of crises in the economy of individual nations do not remain isolated only to those nations. And secondly, that the rises and falls of markets are not just of interest to traders and CEOs but affect the real lives of ordinary people all around the world.

Along with the growing affluence of the world's consumers, there is evidence that improved levels of education are one of the major drivers of social change, and of increased usage of certain types of products and services.

The opening up of education to women in many emerging markets provides both a massive injection of new talent into the workforce in those markets but also a major impetus to social change.

Perhaps for the first time the reality of climate change is accepted rather than debated. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) average global temperatures are rising, snow and ice are undergoing a "global-scale decline" and sea-levels have risen by 3mm per year since 1993.

Furthermore, there is widespread acceptance that the root cause of these changes are various human activities rather than any natural cycles.

By globalization we mean the increasing availability of goods, services, and lifestyles all around the world, fueled by technology, global media, increased foreign travel and the activities of transnational corporations.

We see globalization moving into a new phase. Following what was essentially a western monologue where "we" spoke and expected "them" to listen by buying our products, we now begin to see the emergence of a "global dialogue". Innovation, products and services will increasingly flow in all directions.

Wherever they live, consumers all around the world are directly affected by government when it comes to their daily lives, and their longer-term hopes and aspirations. Whether elected or not, the legislative, economic, military and social influences of governmental bodies are profound.

There can be multiple layers of government from the local to the provincial, from the national to the international each with their own distinctive spheres of influence. Consumers as individuals have to live their lives within the frameworks provided by these authorities but at least have the chance to influence the direction of such decisions, in democratic countries at least. Corporations and the brands they offer also have to operate in such a framework.

There are more of us on the planet than ever before, using raw materials at a faster rate than ever before. Many agree that some of the major challenges of the 21st century will be around getting the best use out of the dwindling fossil fuel resources and in the rapid replacement of those resources with viable long-term alternatives.

In addition, global climate change and shifting populations will place water availability at the center of the global power balance — will the "water wars" of science fiction become the 21st century reality?

Miniaturization and mass-production have placed technology in the form of mobile phones, MP3 players and the internet in the hands of the man in the street. But what has been interesting, aside from the products themselves, has been the pace of change and the speed of adoption of these products.

Many now look to technology (for example in the form of Genetically Modified Organisms, Gene Therapy, Cold Fusion) as the answer to many of the key challenges of ageing, resource availability and climate change. Whether technology can indeed fulfill this high expectation remains to be seen.

The world’s population will grow from 6.1 billion in 2000 to 7.8 billion in 2025. Ninety percent of this growth will happen in urban areas. Fifty percent of the global population now live in urban areas.

Growing numbers live in the Megacities of the world. These cities of more than 10 million inhabitants offer unique lifestyle challenges and opportunities.

Urbanization will cause a heavy burden on the sustainability of modern society, but new innovations will also emerge from this trend.

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